Armageddon in Orbit: NASA’s Nuclear Plan to Stop a City-Killer Asteroid
A space rock named 2024 YR4—up to 67 meters across—was first spotted in December 2024. Early assessments warned it could strike Earth on December 23, 2032, potentially destroying an entire city. Over the following year, the Earth-impact probability has been downgraded to about 0.00081%. At the same time, the chances of the asteroid hitting the Moon could be as high as 4%. The plan emerging from researchers borrows a page from cinema: a 'nuclear robust disruption mission' to break the rock apart, rather than simply deflect it. The idea involves deploying two 100-kiloton devices, with a second backup device considered for disposal if not needed.
The Threat to the Moon and Space Infrastructure
If 2024 YR4 hits the Moon, fragments could rain down on Earth-orbiting satellites and spacecraft. Displaced material could also fall back to the Moon, potentially hindering rovers and astronauts in the Artemis program. To prevent that, scientists proposed a nuclear disruption mission to blow the rock apart and avoid the worst-case debris. A separate option—deflecting the asteroid with a mission like NASA’s 2022 DART—was considered, but scientists deemed it impractical because there wouldn’t be enough time to gather adequate reconnaissance on the asteroid’s size and mass.
Two 100-Kiloton Nuclear Devices: How the Plan Would Work
The proposed method would use two 100-kiloton nuclear devices that would self-navigate to the asteroid. One would detonate with roughly five to eight times the power of the atomic bombs dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945. A second device would be kept on board as a backup; if not needed, it could be safely detonated in deep space after the asteroid has been deflected by the first blast. Timeline and readiness: reconnaissance could not launch until 2028, leaving about three years to counter the threat. NASA could have between five and seven years to prepare a nuclear response, with a potential launch window from 2029 to late 2031. Researchers emphasize there is no need to panic. While YR4's chances of striking the Moon remain slim, the nuclear plan provides another potential tool for defending near-Earth space.
